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The Frenemy: How Australia navigates superpower rivalry

September 28, 2026

Australia finds itself navigating a delicate balance between its largest trading partner, China, and its closest security ally, the United States, amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region. The country has significantly expanded its military cooperation with the US and Japan, including joint exercises and infrastructure upgrades, while the deployment of American Marines in Australia has grown from 200 in 2012 to approximately 2,500 today. Despite these deepening defense ties exemplified by the Aukus nuclear submarine agreement, Australian public trust in the US remains surprisingly low at just 31 percent, barely higher than the 28 percent who trust China.

Who is affected

  • Australia (government, military, and citizens)
  • The United States (military forces and government)
  • China (as trading partner and perceived security concern)
  • Japan (as military training partner)
  • US Marines deployed in Australia (increased from 200 to 2,500)
  • Australian Army personnel, including Brigadier Ben McLennan
  • Middle power nations like Canada observing Australia's approach

What action is being taken

  • The Australian, American, and Japanese armed forces are conducting joint military exercises called "Southern Jackaroo"
  • Australia is upgrading military bases, including RAAF Tindal air base in the Northern Territory to support long-range American B52 bombers
  • Approximately 2,500 US Marines are currently deployed in Australia for a six-month rotation
  • Australia is implementing its Aukus partnership with the US and UK to acquire nuclear submarines
  • The Australian military is training for large-scale conflict scenarios

Why it matters

  • This situation matters because Australia exemplifies the difficult position many nations face in an increasingly polarized world where economic interests and security concerns point in opposite directions. The country must maintain crucial trade relationships with China while preparing militarily for potential conflict with the same nation, demonstrating how middle powers navigate superpower rivalry. The low level of public trust in both the US and China (31% and 28% respectively) despite deep government commitments reveals a disconnect between official policy and public sentiment that could affect long-term strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific region.

What's next

  • No explicit next steps stated in the article

Read full article from source: BBC

The Frenemy: How Australia navigates superpower rivalry